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Forum:2012 Pacific hurricane season
July 96E.INVEST Whoa, that was quick. Currently at 10%, but the models don't go as crazy as I expected with this. Might be a hurricane, but that's about it. SHIPS only peaks this at 70 knots in the far future. Then again, that was the same kind of prediction they made for Eugene last year and look what happened...There's another low that could come behind this and explode in the next 3-4 days though. EPac's starting to ramp up. Ryan1000 13:58, July 2, 2012 (UTC) I say at least a cat 2 Allanjeffs 15:34, July 2, 2012 (UTC) :Yep, this blew up and looks really good. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 15:51, July 2, 2012 (UTC) ::Now up to 30% --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 17:52, July 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::It seems every storm named Daniel wants to be a long-lived major threatening Hawaii. This one probrably will too, in the long run, but I don't think it will make it to the islands themselves. Ryan1000 21:23, July 2, 2012 (UTC) ::::Probably will be our second major of the year and I say ex 97L in the Atlantic will develop in the pacific and will become Emilia.Allanjeffs 22:31, July 2, 2012 (UTC) :::: I have a question by any chance can someone give me a link to the 2006 and 2005 hurricane seasonal discussion that I can`t find it. thanks Allanjeffs 00:12, July 3, 2012 (UTC) :::: Its on the Wikipedia talk pages. 00:21, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::Can you give me the link please.Allanjeffs 00:52, July 3, 2012 (UTC) :::::Allan, see the archives on the talk page of the wikipedia pages. Here is the talk page of 2005. Just scroll down a bit and you'll see a monthly and storm event archives at the bottom part of the orange-colored talk page header. Do the same with 2006's Talk page. You'll see the archives. And yeah, after this one, the models pick up on another storm coming into EPac 3-4 days out, possibly exploding into a major, like Daniel-to be is expected to. SHIPS doesn't take this storm to hurricane intensity right now, but intensity forecasting has been off with some EPac storms. They require less energy to intensify since most of them are small in size. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a C4 out of this, like in 2006. Ryan1000 02:33, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::::thanks Ryan I agree probable Daniel and Emilia will be majors.Allanjeffs 03:58, July 3, 2012 (UTC) :::::::Aside from Hawaii, which both may threaten in the long run, there's nothing else going on. They'll probrably be fish storms. None of the models foresee development from anything in the Atlantic for the next week and WPac also seems to be silent. Ryan1000 05:19, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::Yeah, the models are pretty consistent with this heading out way to the west. But they seem to be less aggresive then usual. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 14:54, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::50%!Cyclone10 15:42, July 3, 2012 (UTC) ::::::::::I think this will be one of those unexpected C4 surprises. AndrewTalk To Me 17:23, July 3, 2012 (UTC) And we're up to 80%! And yeah, I was thinking the same thing. --'CobraStrike' (t)(b)( ) 17:41, July 3, 2012 (UTC) Daniel is coming and they are forecasting a stronger Emilia right now.Allanjeffs 17:59, July 3, 2012 (UTC) And Ryan the WPac is not thatquiet there is a medium percent chance of a formation of a tropical cyclone near the Phillippines.Allanjeffs 18:02, July 3, 2012 (UTC) Definitely going to become Daniel. AndrewTalk To Me 18:06, July 3, 2012 (UTC) I know there are some storms near Luzon that may organize into a TS, but it won't be that strong if it does so. Ryan1000 18:33, July 3, 2012 (UTC) Retirements at a Glance Here's mine: *Aletta - 0% - Not even close. *Bud - 5% - It brought beneficial rain. *Carlotta - 7% - Wasn't that much damage. Cyclone10 21:35, June 21, 2012 (UTC) Mine: *Aletta - 0% - It was a fun pre-season storm to follow, but had no impact on land. *Bud - 2% - Fun storm to follow, but not enough damage. *Carlotta - 5% - Killed two girls. AndrewTalk To Me 11:08, May 20, 2012 (UTC) : Mine ::: Aletta- 0% have fun tracking you. thanks to heat the tropics my darling.Allanjeffs 15:43, May 20, 2012 (UTC) ::: Bud-2% at least pass near Mexico and the first major of the season but Bud, the card that you pull near the coast make your chances of retirement come down and really down.Allanjeffs 15:18, May 26, 2012 (UTC) ::: Carlotta15% 3 deaths but she didn`t cause enormous so she is staying. * Aletta - 0% - Early kickoff to the seson, but no impact, so no retirement. * Bud - 3% - Sorry, Buddy, but that's all I can give you. * Carlotta - 10% - It caused some impacts in Mexico, but it definitely wasn't severe enough for retirement. Ryan1000 16:23, May 26, 2012 (UTC) CobraStrike: *Aletta - 0% - No impacts, and a weak storm. *Bud - 2% - Bud pulled a Don at landfall, caused some issues, but dissipated so quickly it wasn't a problem. *Carlotta - 6% - Caused 2 fatalities and widespread flooding, but the impacts were not large enough to support a retirement. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 18:35, June 19, 2012 (UTC)